In a major escalation of tensions, India has announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. The decision comes in the immediate af
In a major escalation of tensions, India has announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. The decision comes in the immediate aftermath of recent terrorist attacks in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which India asserts were orchestrated by elements based in Pakistan. The Indian government has made it clear that it is unwilling to continue relations with Pakistan under the current circumstances.
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India’s announcement to suspend the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam terror attacks signals a significant shift in policy. New Delhi stated it no longer wishes to continue the agreement. This move follows previous signals from the Modi government about reviewing the treaty, which had reportedly caused considerable concern in Pakistan. Experts anticipate India’s decision will have a profound impact on Pakistan, which receives a substantial share of water under the treaty. Pakistan has historically warned that any abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an act of war. Pakistan’s vital Punjab and Sindh provinces are heavily reliant on these river waters, and any disruption is expected to severely impact their agriculture. With this decision, India appears to have initiated a ‘water war’ against Pakistan, seen by some as a primary step to bring Pakistan to its knees.
Historical Context: 65-Year-Old Water Accord Halted Perfidious Pakistan to Face Water Crisis
Signed in 1960 by then-Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, the Indus Waters Treaty has regulated the use of the Indus River system. The treaty allocates the waters of the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – for India’s exclusive use, while the waters of the western rivers – Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus – are primarily for Pakistan. Both countries are permitted to use the waters for domestic purposes, including hydro-power generation and irrigation. The treaty also allows India to store up to 3.6 million acre-feet (MAF) of water on the western rivers for various specified uses. The core objective of the treaty was to prevent water-related conflicts between the two nations and ensure water availability for agriculture. India has historically upheld the treaty, even during periods of conflict, while Pakistan has consistently faced accusations of supporting terrorism against India. Despite engaging in three wars, India had never previously moved to stop the water flow, even as Pakistan was often held responsible for terrorist attacks on Indian soil.
‘Water Bomb’ Poised to Cripple Pakistan’s Economy Economic Ruin for Pakistan?
Pakistan’s economy is significantly agriculture-based, and its rivers are often described as its economic lifeline. Approximately 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the waters from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Additionally, Pakistan generates a large portion of its electricity through dams and hydro projects on these rivers. A reduction in water flow would directly impact power generation, disrupting economic and industrial activities. Pakistan utilizes the waters from the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum for multiple purposes including agriculture, drinking water, hydropower, industrial use, fisheries, navigation, and transportation. India’s decision to potentially halt the flow of these rivers following the Pahalgam attack is expected to trigger a severe water crisis in Pakistan, significantly destabilizing its economic situation. Simply put, India’s action could inflict further damage on Pakistan’s already struggling economy by causing water shortages and a subsequent decline in power generation. This move poses significant challenges for Pakistan.
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