The assembly bypolls held on June 19, 2025, across Gujarat, West Bengal, Punjab, and Kerala provided the first electoral gauge of public sentiment fol
The assembly bypolls held on June 19, 2025, across Gujarat, West Bengal, Punjab, and Kerala provided the first electoral gauge of public sentiment following the Pahalgam terror attack and India’s military response, Operation Sindoor. These by-elections, covering five constituencies—Kadi and Visavadar in Gujarat, Kaliganj in West Bengal, Ludhiana West in Punjab, and Nilambur in Kerala—saw voter turnout ranging from 51.33% to 73.26%, reflecting varied regional dynamics and heightened political stakes. The results, announced on June 23, offer insights into how national security and local issues shaped voter priorities.
The Pahalgam incident, a deadly attack in Jammu and Kashmir in May 2025, followed by India’s retaliatory strikes on terror camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, dominated national discourse. Recent reports suggest the bypolls became a litmus test for political parties navigating a nationalist surge and regional concerns. Nilambur in Kerala recorded the highest turnout at 73.26%, driven by intense campaigning and its significance as a precursor to the 2026 state elections. Kaliganj in West Bengal followed closely at 72.05%, with identity politics and post-Murshidabad riot tensions influencing voters. In contrast, Ludhiana West in Punjab saw the lowest turnout at 51.33%, possibly due to urban voter apathy, while Gujarat’s Kadi (57.90%) and Visavadar (56.89%) recorded moderate participation.
In West Bengal, Kaliganj’s bypoll, triggered by the death of TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed, saw a triangular contest among the Trinamool Congress (TMC), BJP, and a Congress-Left alliance. The TMC’s decision to field Ahamed’s daughter, Alifa Ahmed, consolidated minority voters, leading to a victory that reinforced its regional dominance. Posts on X noted a nationalist wave post-Operation Sindoor, but local issues like the SSC recruitment scam and communal tensions shaped the narrative. Experts suggest the TMC’s win signals voter trust in Mamata Banerjee’s leadership despite BJP’s attempts to leverage communal polarization.
Kerala’s Nilambur bypoll, vacated by P.V. Anvar’s shift to an independent candidacy, was billed as a “semi-final” for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) before the 2026 state polls. The Congress secured a decisive win, bolstered by high turnout and Priyanka Gandhi’s campaigning, signaling a revival of its urban and rural support. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) struggled to retain the seat, with analysts pointing to voter fatigue with its governance. The high turnout, monitored through extensive webcasting at 263 polling booths, reflected robust voter engagement amid tight security.
In Punjab, Ludhiana West’s bypoll, necessitated by the death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi, was a high-stakes urban contest. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retained the seat, a morale boost for Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, despite competition from Congress, BJP, and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). Low turnout raised concerns about urban voter disconnect, but AAP’s win underscored its growing clout in Punjab’s cities. Campaigning saw heavyweights like Arvind Kejriwal and BJP’s Nayab Singh Saini, with X posts highlighting AAP’s focus on governance achievements.
Gujarat’s bypolls in Kadi and Visavadar revealed complex dynamics. In Kadi, vacated by BJP MLA Karsanbhai Solanki’s death, the BJP retained the seat, leveraging its organizational strength and Dalit voter support. Visavadar, however, saw AAP capitalize on defector Bhupendrabhai Bhayani’s move to BJP, with Gopal Italia securing a win. The triangular contests, including Congress candidates, highlighted shifting alliances and local defections. Moderate turnout suggested voter caution amid national security debates.
The Election Commission reported largely peaceful polling, with webcasting at 1,353 of 1,354 polling stations ensuring transparency. The results—AAP winning in Punjab and Gujarat, Congress in Kerala, TMC in West Bengal, and BJP in Gujarat—show no single party dominated, reflecting diverse voter priorities. The Pahalgam incident amplified national security rhetoric, but local issues like governance, scams, and community tensions proved equally decisive. As states like Kerala and West Bengal gear up for 2026, these bypolls signal a fragmented yet engaged electorate navigating a post-crisis landscape.
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