In a calculated move to strengthen its grip on Uttar Pradesh’s complex political landscape, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has launched a year-long
In a calculated move to strengthen its grip on Uttar Pradesh’s complex political landscape, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has launched a year-long campaign to advocate for a comprehensive caste census targeting Other Backward Classes (OBCs) ahead of the 2027 state assembly elections. This initiative, announced in early June 2025, underscores the party’s recognition of OBC voters—who constitute over 40% of the state’s population—as a pivotal force in shaping electoral outcomes. Recent reports indicate that the BJP aims to leverage this campaign to counter opposition strategies and reclaim lost ground following its underwhelming performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The caste census push comes on the heels of the central government’s decision to include caste enumeration in the 2027 national census, a move hailed by BJP leaders as a commitment to social justice. In Uttar Pradesh, where caste dynamics heavily influence voting patterns, the party is intensifying efforts to connect with non-Yadav OBC communities, such as Kurmis, Rajbhars, and Nishads. By promoting the census, the BJP seeks to address long-standing demands for accurate caste data, which could inform equitable distribution of reservation benefits and welfare schemes. Experts suggest this strategy is designed to neutralize the opposition’s narrative, particularly the Samajwadi Party (SP)’s Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak (PDA) formula, which resonated strongly in 2024.
The BJP’s campaign involves grassroots mobilization, with party workers organizing village-level meetings and awareness drives to highlight the benefits of a caste census. These efforts aim to assure OBC communities that their socio-economic concerns will be addressed through data-driven policies. A senior BJP leader, speaking to a leading news outlet, emphasized that the party’s organizational structure in Uttar Pradesh has allocated significant roles to OBC leaders, reinforcing its inclusive image. This outreach is particularly crucial in regions like eastern Uttar Pradesh, where smaller OBC castes hold sway.
However, the campaign is not without challenges. The Samajwadi Party, led by Akhilesh Yadav, has claimed credit for pushing the caste census agenda, arguing that its persistent advocacy forced the BJP’s hand. Yadav’s recent meetings with Noniya and Rajbhar groups, coupled with promises like erecting a statue of Maharaja Suheldev, signal the SP’s intent to retain its OBC base. Meanwhile, the Congress has launched its own OBC outreach through the Bhagidari Nyay Sammelan, focusing on employment and economic issues. Political analysts note that this multi-party scramble for OBC support underscores the census’s potential to reshape Uttar Pradesh’s electoral arithmetic.
Critics argue that the BJP’s sudden embrace of the caste census—a topic it once deemed divisive—reflects electoral pragmatism rather than ideological conviction. The party’s 2024 Lok Sabha setback, where it secured only 33 of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 seats compared to 62 in 2019, exposed vulnerabilities in its OBC coalition. Data from post-election analyses revealed a significant shift of Upper-OBC and Lower-OBC votes toward the SP-Congress alliance, prompting the BJP to recalibrate its strategy. The caste census campaign, therefore, serves as a preemptive strike to regain these voters by projecting the party as a champion of OBC empowerment.
Beyond electoral gains, the census push could have broader implications for reservation policies. The G. Rohini Commission’s 2023 report on OBC sub-categorization highlighted disparities in benefit distribution among dominant and marginalized OBC groups. A comprehensive caste census could provide the data needed to implement these recommendations, potentially addressing intra-OBC inequalities. However, experts caution that mishandling the census process or its findings could spark community tensions, given the state’s history of caste-based mobilization.
As the 2027 elections loom, the BJP’s year-long campaign positions it to navigate Uttar Pradesh’s intricate caste dynamics while countering opposition narratives. By championing the caste census, the party aims to rebuild trust among OBC voters and solidify its dominance in India’s most populous state. Whether this strategy will translate into votes remains uncertain, but it signals a fiercely competitive electoral battle ahead, with OBCs at its heart.
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