As of May 11, 2025, the India-Pakistan relationship remains fraught with tension following a series of escalatory events sparked by a terrorist attack
As of May 11, 2025, the India-Pakistan relationship remains fraught with tension following a series of escalatory events sparked by a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The conflict, rooted in decades of territorial disputes over Kashmir and mutual accusations of supporting militancy, has seen military skirmishes, diplomatic fallout, and international calls for de-escalation. A fragile ceasefire, announced on May 10, 2025, holds for now, but violations and ongoing mistrust threaten to reignite hostilities. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the current war status, grounded in verified information, and explores the broader implications for the region and beyond.
Background: The Spark of the 2025 Crisis
The latest escalation began on April 22, 2025, with a devastating terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Anantnag district, in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The attack, claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a splinter group linked to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, killed 26 tourists—25 Hindus and one Nepalese national—and injured over 20 others. India swiftly accused Pakistan of sponsoring the attack, a charge Islamabad denied, calling for an international inquiry.
The Pahalgam attack, targeting Hindu tourists, inflamed public sentiment in India, with media and political figures demanding retribution. The Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, responded with a series of measures, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and closing borders. Pakistan retaliated with trade restrictions, airspace closures, and the suspension of the Shimla Agreement, further escalating the diplomatic crisis.
Military Engagements: From Skirmishes to Missile Strikes
Between April 24 and May 6, 2025, India and Pakistan engaged in cross-border firing and intermittent artillery shelling along the Line of Control (LoC). Posts on X reported heavy military deployments, including Pakistan moving tanks and artillery to the border, though such claims lack independent verification.
On May 7, 2025, India launched missile strikes on Pakistan, codenamed Operation Sindoor, targeting alleged militant infrastructure linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. India claimed to have hit nine “terrorist camps” in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab province, including Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Muridke. Pakistan, however, reported that the strikes hit civilian areas, including mosques, killing 31 civilians, including a three-year-old girl.
Pakistan responded with Operation Bunyan al-Marsus on May 10, claiming to have struck Indian military targets. Both sides reported drone attacks, with Pakistan alleging it shot down 25 Indian drones over cities like Karachi and Lahore, while India claimed to have neutralized Pakistani drones targeting its border posts. The use of drones marks a new dimension in this conflict, with both nations deploying kamikaze drones, a tactic popularized in recent global conflicts.
Casualty figures remain contested. Pakistan reported 31 civilian deaths, while India claimed 16 civilian losses on its side. Military casualties are less clear, with unverified X posts claiming “massive casualties” on the Pakistani side. A forecast by UnHerd suggests a 19% chance of over 1,000 combined military fatalities by June 30, 2025, if casualties exceed 100 by May 15.
Ceasefire and Diplomatic Efforts
On May 10, 2025, at 16:30 PKT (17:00 IST), India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire, brokered through backchannel diplomacy and international pressure. The ceasefire aimed to halt military engagements and pave the way for talks, with diplomatic discussions scheduled for May 12. However, reports of explosions in Jammu and Srinagar suggest violations, though neither side has officially confirmed these incidents.
International actors have played a significant role in urging restraint. The United States, while issuing a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory for Jammu and Kashmir, has called for de-escalation and supported India’s counterterrorism efforts. Russia, China, Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE have advocated for peace talks, with Iran offering to mediate. Saudi Arabia and the UK have also engaged diplomatically, with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly involved in calming tensions.
However, analysts like Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group argue that mediation efforts may falter without robust U.S. involvement, given the Trump administration’s perceived disengagement compared to past crises. Moeed Yusuf, a former Pakistani National Security Adviser, suggests that the lack of U.S. backing may have tempered India’s aggression, but the absence of strong bilateral crisis mechanisms remains a concern.
Strategic and Regional Implications
The 2025 standoff highlights the evolving military capabilities of both nations. India’s use of Rafale jets and S-400 air defense systems, countered by Pakistan’s J-10 jets and HQ-9 systems, underscores a closely matched conventional arsenal. The deployment of drones and precision strikes indicates a shift toward modern warfare tactics, raising concerns about escalation control.
The nuclear dimension looms large. Both countries possess around 250 nuclear warheads each, and a 2019 study warned of catastrophic consequences—50 to 125 million immediate deaths and global climatic impacts—in the event of a nuclear exchange. Experts like John Mearsheimer emphasize the risk of Pakistan resorting to nuclear weapons if conventional losses mount, given India’s superior conventional forces.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty adds another layer of complexity. Pakistan has called India’s move an “act of war,” warning that water resource disruptions could escalate the conflict. Local reports of flooding from the Jhelum River and reduced Chenab River levels highlight the humanitarian stakes. Forecasters estimate a 67% chance of the treaty’s reinstatement by December 31, 2025, if casualties remain low, but only 22% if they exceed 100 by May 15.
Economically, both nations face significant risks. Pakistan, grappling with an economic crisis and internal security challenges, can ill afford a prolonged conflict. India, while more stable, risks disruptions to its pharmaceutical exports, though analysts predict minimal impact unless a full-scale war erupts.
Public Sentiment and Misinformation
Public pressure has shaped the conflict’s trajectory. In India, outrage over the Pahalgam attack fueled calls for decisive action, amplified by media narratives. In Pakistan, civilian casualties from India’s strikes have spurred demands for retaliation. Misinformation campaigns, including unverified claims of downed jets and exaggerated casualty figures, have proliferated on both sides, complicating efforts to discern fact from fiction.
Social media platforms like X reflect heightened tensions, with posts alleging direct clashes and massive casualties. These claims, often lacking corroboration, underscore the challenge of managing public perception in a digitally connected world.
Looking Ahead: Pathways to Stability
The ceasefire’s fragility underscores the need for sustained diplomatic engagement. Both nations lack robust bilateral crisis mechanisms, relying heavily on third-party mediation. Strengthening hotline communications and reviving agreements like the Shimla Accord could help manage future flare-ups. Addressing the root causes of militancy in Kashmir, including Pakistan’s alleged support for groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, remains critical but contentious.
International actors, particularly the U.S., China, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia, must maintain pressure for de-escalation while avoiding actions that could be perceived as partisan. The reinstatement of the Indus Waters Treaty could serve as a confidence-building measure, given its historical resilience through past conflicts.
Conclusion
The India-Pakistan conflict of 2025, triggered by the Pahalgam attack, has brought two nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of war. While the May 10 ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope, reported violations and deep-seated mistrust threaten to unravel progress. The international community’s role in enforcing restraint and fostering dialogue is paramount, as is the need for both nations to address internal pressures and misinformation. With the specter of nuclear escalation and humanitarian fallout, the stakes could not be higher. Only through sustained diplomacy and mutual concessions can India and Pakistan step back from the precipice.
COMMENTS